The annual average temperature of the area is 19.7 C. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. The details of these stations have already been presented in Table2. Conversely, low flow conditions will intensify during the warm months. In this study, we analyse global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate the qualitative aspects of change and trends in temperature and precipitation indices. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were . 2011; Funk et al. Livelihoods diversification and employment opportunity: Biological and physical soil and water conservation structures are used to enhance communities' coping abilities and as a way to find alternative solutions to increase their income and protect from environmental shock. 2014). The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. Soil moisture is one of the essential climate variables with a potential impact on local climate variability. It builds on, among others, on the recommendations of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, but a substantial amount of information that became available afterwards has also been included.While this study is not meant to be a comprehensive overview of all aspects of climate change impact on the RMs economy it does reflect the breadth and depth of researches that had been done in the RM to date, and it provides a link between a global phenomenon and the sectors development issues facing the country. The magnitude of increasing trend during the belg season was found to be 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% in DB station and a significantly decreasing trend was found to be 0.12 mm/year and 10.00 in GIN station. Barley, wheat, horse beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops. 2001; Kurukulasuriya & Mendelsohn 2008). After total observation of the 35-year period, a record 16 years (45.7%) were lower than the total annual rainfall of the area. (2011), adaptation strategies are an important mechanism for managing climatic change and variability. Understanding projections of extreme precipitation is part of a resilient response to its impacts. It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily T min , T max , and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. During this period,the Northeast Trade Winds carrying non-moisture-laden dominates the region. The results revealed that the magnitude of significantly increasing trend and variability was observed in mean annual rainfall for DB station (at 0.28 mm/year and 1.07%). 2015). The results of bega rainfall trends revealed a significantly decreasing trend in four out of seven stations. The average rainfall inthe region varies from 1,400 to over 2,200 mm/year.iii. Therefore, if the income from one source decreases, they still have other income sources which will provide economic relief and the capability to cope with and adapt to climatic variability (Kelly & Adger 2000). 2014). There has been a continuous decrease in the duration and distribution of rainfall during the last 35 years. However, some parts of thecountry enjoy a temperate climate. 2014). You can download the paper by clicking the button above. Soil management: Soil erosion and degradation reduces crop productivity for traditional farming practices (particularly for mountainous area like the Beressa watershed), as erosion and degradation occurs at a higher rate than fertile soil formation. Therefore, the projected rainfall and temperature have been corrected for biases by using empirical Quantile Mapping. 2016). In line with the study by Wu et al. For more than 70% of the world's population, the primary source of their livelihood has originated from weather sensitive agriculture (Suarez et al. This process is repeated for the whole data sequence. Let X1, X2, X3. 5.3.2. Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. Ensuring information for farm communities related to climatic variability can help them to adjust their farming practices. The spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively. 2005). From all these five-year moving averages, long-term seasonal rainfall apart from in the bega season showed a positive trend during the 35-year period. Spatiotemporal Distribution of TemperatureAltitude is an important element in determining temperature of Ethiopia and the Horn. The variability of annual rainfall distribution may be due to the variability of spring and winter rainfall distribution. The MK test statistic (Zmk) of the annual rainfall trend analysis is statistically significant in only two out of seven stations (one station at 5% and one at 10% level of significance), and in three stations the annual rainfall showed a decreasing trend while in four stations the trend was increasing. 2008; Subash et al. Global warming has become the greatest barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goal with respect to decreasing food insecurity. Registration confirmation will be emailed to you. Five years moving average temperature (19802014). Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). Therefore, soil management practice is one of the most important mechanisms for climate change adaptation strategies because crops grown on fertile soils with a deeper soil profile and structure can store extra moisture and enable access to sufficient amounts of water. The magnitude of the linear trends is estimated using the Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall's test is performed to check the statistical significance of the trends. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. Density distribution plots of observed climate indices for meteorological stations and gridded indices are also analysed, which indicate significant negative trends in the annual number of frost days and significant increasing trends in warm nights in the EH region over the 19602000 period. Southern part ofEthiopia receives highest records of temperature in autumn and spring following the relativeshift of the sun; whereas in the northern part of the country, summer season is characterized byhigher temperature.It has to be noted that certain seasons should have special considerations. . (2014), it was concluded that a general tendency of increasing warm temperature, extreme variability and inconsistent precipitation trend was recorded in Ethiopia. The available data for crop production (Q/ha) over 18 years (19972014) for the major crops such as barley, wheat, beans, peas, lentils and chickpeas were obtained from the district office of Agriculture and Central Statistical Authority. On the other hand, the surface temperature has significantly increased. 2013; Pachauri et al. Some other studies used seasonal or annual rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis (Conway & Schipper 2011). What causes climate change? The region experiences most of its rain during summer (kiremt), while some placesalso receive spring (Belg) rain. Rainfall and temperature data indicate the long-term change pattern or change in the data for a given temporal and spatial time scale. The majorcontrols determining its distributions are latitude and cloud cover. This study assessed the historical (1983-2005) and future (2026-2100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). Continuously increasing temperature, together with the variability and fluctuation of seasonal and inter-annual rainfall is a root cause for the decrease and fluctuation of crop production. It is a rainfall region in the southwestern partof the country. 2015). According to Anderson (1942), in order to exclude the influence of serial correlation, before using MK test statistics, serial autocorrelation is tested by Lag-I autocorrelation using different levels of significance (0.01, 0.05 and 0.1%). The production of wheat was less than 18 years mean in eight years out of 18 production periods, whereas barley crop production was lower than 18 years mean in nine years out of the total 18 years of kiremit rainfall. Out of seven rainfall stations, only two stations (one at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend during belg season, while during bega season, four stations (three at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend. The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. The Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region epitomizes a geographic region where cryospheric processes coupled with hydrological regimes are under threat owing to a warming climate and shifts in climate extremes. This is because the temperature and the amount of energy reaching the surface isdirectly related with the directness of the sun.The direction of rain bearing winds (leeward or windward side) also determines the temperaturevariations in mountainous regions. Mixed crop-livestock is the production system of the area and is perhaps the only source of livelihood for the majority of the population. In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. (2011) and Manandhar et al. Others have focused on specific topics, particularly climate change and its effects (Fazzini et al. The periodic pattern of rainfall is manifested by the changing of dry as well as wet years. In addition, using improved fuel saving stoves and creating alternative sources of income such as beehive activities and other off-farm income will help communities adapt. Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. Following the directness of the Sun inMarch and September around the equator, the ITCZ shifts towards equator. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall Rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. In this season, the effect of the northeast trade wind is very muchreduced. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess. When the tropical depression is observed in the SWIO, the daily rainfall is significantly decreased. 2018 May 30;190(6):368. doi: 10.1007/s10661-018 . As already explained. Out of seven stations, long-term annual maximum temperature has shown a significantly increasing trend (three stations at 5% significance level and two stations at 10% significance level). During this season, the south easterliesfrom Indian ocean showers the lowlands in southeastern part of Ethiopia.iii. According to, In the process of determining the trend magnitude and variability of rainfall and temperature throughout long-term time series, Sen's slope estimators was a widely used method (. pieces of evidence indicated that a detailed study of the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall and temperature are very important for agricultural/urban planning (mehmet, 2015 ), flood frequency analysis, water resources assessments, assessing and understanding climate change impacts, and other environmental assessments (alemu, 2019; Precipitation projections indicate increased mean precipitation with more frequent extreme rainfall during monsoon season in the EH region, and a wetter cold season in the WH region. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability, Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia, Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections, Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach, Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia, Effect of projected climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semiarid region of central India, Simulating Streamflow in Response to Climate Change in The Upper Ewaso Ngiro Catchment, Kenya. How can we respond to the changing climate? The minimum and maximum temperature have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively.. Therefore, there is a need for community-based coping and adaptation strategies such as adopting soil, water conservation and water harvesting strategies; and increasing diversified crops, high value and market oriented crops, fast growing crops and climate resistant crops, which are less susceptible to future climatic variability. Spatiotemporal Distribution of RainfallRainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. The Mann-Kendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies on soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented. Therefore, there were no gaps in the data series. Autumn and Spring rainfall regionsThe region comprises areas receiving rain following the influence of southeasterly winds. Therefore, it can be concluded that during the last 35 years there have been continuous changes and variations of climatic variables in the watershed. Results of the ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology. It is one of the most widely used non-parametric statistical tests to check the trend of randomness against the detection of trends over time (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975). Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Water harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits. In the last few decades, incidence of climate change related hazards have manifested in the form of recurrent drought, erosive rain, rainfall variability and flood events (Kenabatho et al. The temporal variabilities of rainfall are characterized by;i. 2012; Meshesha et al. Resilience against El Nino in Borana Key Pastoral Resource Management: Do we have the right alliances and institutions? The time series of five years moving average minimum and maximum temperature was analysed for the period 19802014. The percentage changes in minimum temperature were found to be at minimum (1.90%) and maximum (52.40%) in GIN and DBS stations, respectively. Therefore, long-term analysis of climatic trends has been used to characterize the situations (Singh et al. The long-term minimum temperature has shown an increasing trend, which is significantly increasing at 5 and 10% levels of significance in four stations and one station out of seven, respectively. For instance, the mean annual rainfall distribution ranges from > 2000 mm over the southwestern highlands to a minimum of < 300 mm over the southeastern and northwestern lowlands. To determine the weighting the following general formula was employed (, Adapting to Climate Change: Natural Resource Management and Vulnerability Reduction, Background paper to the Task Force on Climate Change, Adaptation and Vulnerable Communities, Coping with drought among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in eastern Ethiopia, Climate change adaptation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: foundations for the future, Climate Change-Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks, Beyond the Famine: an Examination of the Issues Behind Famine in Ethiopia, International Institute for Relief and Development and Food for the Hungry International, Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers perception, Trending regional precipitation distribution and intensity: use of climatic indices, Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India, Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change, Annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in Ethiopia, Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Karamoja, Centennial rainfall variation in semi arid and tropical humid environments in the cardamom hill slopes, southern Western Ghats, India, Micro-level Analysis of Farmers Adaption to Climate Change in Southern Africa, International Food Policy Research Institute, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. 2014; Mondal et al. The coefficient of variation is higher during the rainfall in the bega and belg seasons than the rainy season (kiremit rainfall season), as shown in Table2. Rock and Mineral Resources of Ethiopia, CHAPTER THREE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 3.2. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. Although atmospheric moisture content increases, this is more than compensated for by higher air temperatures, leading to declining RH. 2011; Jain & Kumar 2012; Suryavanshi et al. The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) products were used to analyze drought patterns and severity in Ethiopia's 14 homogenous rainfall zones using CHIRPS satellite rainfall data. The MannKendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. In nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than 1%. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. The reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards. To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. During the winter season, the Redsea escarpments and some parts of the Afar region receive their main rain. Following theposition of the overhead sun, the ITCZ shifts north and south of the equator. According to Griggs & Noguer (2002), Babel et al. NB: Kiremit: Summer; Belg: Spring; Bega: winter. For most developing countries of the world, agriculture is the basis of the economy. Fine-scale hydrological simulations driven by the global model results should reproduce these trends. Seasonal or Temporal VariabilitiesWhat winds bring summer rainfall for Ethiopian highlands?The rainfall is highly variable both in amount and distribution across regions and seasons.The seasonal and annual rainfall variations are results of the macro-scale pressure systemsand monsoon flows which are related to the changes in the pressure systems discussed in theprevious sections of this chapter. Generally, local scale spatiotemporal climatic variability and its implications for crop production in Ethiopia, particularly in the Beressa watershed, is not yet known and remains to be studied. Multi-model average (MMA) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate. Notably, there is a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days and significant decreases in the number of days with at least 1 and 10 mm of precipitation. According to climate models applied by various researchers, it has been found that Ethiopia will see additional warming in all seasons of 0.72.3 C by the 2020s and 1.42.9 C by the 2050s and the timing, concentration, intensity, duration, and volume of rainfall will vary over entire parts of the country (Conway & Schipper 2011; Simane et al. Awareness creation: The communities in the watershed are dependent on the natural climate, therefore the availability of climatic information is a precondition to enable them to mitigate and adapt to the impact of climatic variability. 2009). The minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. Five years moving average rainfall (19802014). This development mainly happens in July in Ethiopia and the Horn causingvariability and seasonality.The ITCZ shifts towards south of equator (Tropic of Capricorn) in January. Generally, as can be seen from Figure3, there has been a high increase in overall temperature, which may result in a decrease in productivity and food insecurity. Barley, bean and chickpea show significant correlation with maximum temperature. Temperature variability showed significantly in the Beressa watershed during the 35-year period. Seasonal analysis of rainfall obtained from MK test statistic results are presented in Table3. For instance, unlikeother parts of Ethiopia, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature. Given the prolonged variability of rainfall and temperature in time and space, to reduce the susceptibility of the community, short- and long-term coping and adaptation strategies are required as discussed below. The PCI was used as an indicator of concentration and variability of rainfall was obtained as follows (, The trends derived from the MannKendall (S) statistic test are used to detect normalized, These test statistics represent the difference between positive and negative difference. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of. This statistical test is a popular and important tool in detecting the trend used by many other scholars for related applications (Hirsch et al. 2014; Kishore et al. The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. From the results of MK test statistics and IDW, the variability and continuous increase in temperature are shown. 3.1 Spatial distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia. Latitude,humidity and winds, with varying magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia. Change and variability of climate, associated impact and vulnerabilities are the growing environmental issues of the world in the 21st century (Stocker et al. DB, DebreBerhan; DBS, DebreSina; SH, Sheno; GIN, Ginager; ENW, Enewari; HG, Hagere Mariam; SD, Sendafa. The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. This report compiles information from a wide variety of data and information sources. This study involves the observation of climatic variables, i.e. Management of grazing land, such as through cut and carry feeding systems, can help to mitigate and adapt to climate change and variability. 3. 2012; Fazzini et al. Therefore, it is pertinent for decision-makers to develop suitable adaptation and mitigating measures to combat climate change in the Basin. During the belg (small rainy) season the subdivision indicates a slightly increasing rainfall trend and the bega season (dry season) shows a negative trend, as already presented in Figure2. Barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the months of May and June. According to Al-Bakri et al. 2016). 2014). ABSTRACT: Extreme precipitation exerts damaging impacts on both society and ecosystems. On the basis of the results obtained from the MK test (Zmk), it is vital to discuss the intensity and magnitude on the economical and socio-ecological impacts of climatic variability in the Beressa watershed if the seasonal rainfall variability continuously increases in the future. Therefore, given the prolonged climatic variability of the Beressa watershed, the following coping and adaptation mechanisms are suggested. In this regard, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a widely used method employed by many scholars across the globe (Oliver 1980; Apaydin et al. The future climate also shows a continuing positive trend in the temperature extreme indices as well as more frequent extreme rainfall events. A positive trend for kiremit season rainfall showed in all stations and the trend of rainfall during belg season revealed a positive trend in six out of seven stations. 2005). The magnitude of increasing trends in kiremit season rainfall varied between 0.33 mm/year and a percentage change of 6.13% (DBS station) to 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% (DB). Thus temperature, as it is affected by altitude, decreasestowards the interior highlands. The steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5%. (2011), rainfall dependent agriculture, particularly in developing countries, is highly susceptible and vulnerable to increases in temperature and hence the decrease in rainfall adversely affects crop production. Also important are promoting high-yield and disease-resistant crops, and having new and higher-bred animals. The rate and variability of increasing temperature have dramatically increased, making it more difficult for local communities to foresee the intensity and magnitude of temperature even for the next few years. Overall, the five years moving average trend of average annual temperature of the study watershed is increasing by about 0.95 C. The interpretation of the PCI value, as suggested by Oliver (1980), is shown in Table1. ; 190 ( 6 ):368. doi: 10.1007/s10661-018 and south of the ensembles for and! 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